Overview
Wassily reads every Robinhood Chain token that clears $10K and only trusts what a provable floor allows.
The jar
Filled by the Hoeffding bound for U-statistics
The jar stays empty until real tokens are labelled, 48h after launch. No numbers are shown before they exist.
Explore the proofLive ingest
0 pulled · 0 priced · 0 holder counts · 0/min
Validation gates
The jar is capped at 95% until all four pass
- Sample size ≥ 2,000—waiting
- Survivors ≥ 200—waiting
- Fold σ < 0.05—waiting
- Time-split gap ≤ 0.04—waiting
What the model leans on
Top feature families by coefficient weight, reached $30K vs stalled
Weights appear once real tokens are labelled and the model has something to learn from.
Proof & capacity
Hoeffding bound for U-statistics · Wassily Hoeffding, 1963
No tokens are labelled yet, so these sliders start from example values to show how the bound behaves. The real jar is the one above.
Measured 0.580, ε removes 0.046, so the floor is 0.534.
Why the jar fills slowly
On a small sample, luck looks like skill. With n tokens and n₊ survivors, the true AUC sits at most ε below the measured one, with 95% confidence.
AUC is a two-sample U-statistic, so Hoeffding’s inequality applies with the smaller class as the effective sample size.
The jar fills with AUC − ε, never the raw score. A strong model on a thin sample leaves it empty, by design.